More thoughts from Chicago

 

This is a continuation of my thoughts on the American Academy of Forensic Sciences Meeting. A benefit of programs like is the opportunity to meet nationally recognized experts, and see how they approach things. Unfortunately, there is a pretty big disparity in the quality of forensic scientists; if you don't know how the good ones approach cases you don't know what you are missing. Unlike the experts you often encounter at trial, most of the presenters at the program didn't appear to be all that impressed with themselves.

One of the more interesting speakers the first day admitted that he could have – and should have – been attacked when he testified as an expert. He set out some things to look at to determine whether testimony meets the “crap test”. Basically they were areas you should look at, which included:

  • Interpretation – what was the result of interpretation, and is it valid and supported
  • data – what is the opinion based on
  • report – how complete is it (if there is one), and does it explain the process used and any assumptions made
  • variability – where evidence is tested, was there an adequate sample. This is particularly important in drug
  • references – are any cited or relied on
  • skepticism – this has to do more with peer review. Has someone else looked at the opinion and tried to find the holes that exist. Obviously in most cases there is no such thing.

Looking at those factors, it is a pretty good checklist to use when evaluating forensic evidence. One of the most overlooked  factors – at least in my experience – is the assumptions used. To reach an opinion about anything, you have to assume certain things. If the assumptions are not valid, then the opinion cannot be relied. You don't know if the assumptions are valid unless you know what they are.

Another factor that is often overlooked is the data relied on. An opinion is only as good as the data it is based on. Many times, all the data is not set out, and it is our obligation to find it. You may have to look hard – and dig deep – to discover what data was used.

The final thing I took away from this presentation – as well as several others – was the idea of skepticism. As I set out yesterday, there is usually a monopoly of opinion. When someone else does look at a report – e.g. fingerprints – how rigorous is it. Do they really scrutinize the results, and try to prove the opposite? I think more often than not they merely look to determine if its close. If he State won't do this, then it becomes our obligation to put the evidence to the test.

 Another presenter focused on something I learned a long time ago. If an expert asks you to "trust them", red flags should pop up immediately. A good expert should never have to ask anyone to trust them. If they can't explain their opinions and trust you to reach the right conclusion, then they probably don't know what they are doing

Another red flag is "based on my training and experience". Just because you have been doing something for along time doesn't mean you are good at it. Nor does it mean you cannot make mistakes. Any doubt should be put to rest by looking at the the Brandon Mayfield case - where the  most experienced fingerprint examiners in the country all got it wrong.

I left Chicago with my head about to burst, If I learned anything it was that I don't anything. It also reinforced my opinion that we can do a lot more to challenge forensic evidence - especially it is  critical to the State's case. We all have a long way to go to educate ourselves on the forensics involved in our cases. We have to do it though - our clients freedom depends on it.

Impressions from Chicago

I survived my first day at the Academy of Forensic Sciences Convention. It was nothing like anything I have ever been to. Having been to a number of national seminars, I've seen some pretty big crowds - but nothing like this. I have no idea how many people there are, but I'm guessing well over a 1,000.

The seminars are set up a lot like TCDLA's annual forensic seminar, with a number of tracks going on at the same time. Basically there are 12 different seminars going on; which means you have to spend a lot of time mapping out what  you want to go to. A big difference from most legal seminars I have been to is the length of the presentations - most are 20 minutes. I supposed most people would say a lawyer can't introduce themselves in 20 minutes - and there is some truth to that.

Much of today was spent discussing the problems with forensic evidence; not surprising given the attacks that have flowed from the NAS report. As you can imagine, some are none to happy with some of the tactics being used. However, everyone I listened to today acknowledged that there are problems that need to be identified and addressed.

One of the first sessions identified the "monopoly" in forensic science. The idea is that the vast majority of forensic tests are done by crime labs; most of the testing is never challenged, wihich results in a monopoly in interpretation. Obviously if something is never challenged, the likelihood of uncovering mistakes is small.

Most of he presenters recognized the concept of cognitive bias. One referred to it as "observer " bias, or "rational bias", noting that it always exists. As he said, everyone has a point of view - you can't avoid it. The problem arises when tests are ambiguous - you have to choose how to resolve that, which cannot help but be influenced by your point of view. When you work every day with police and law enforcement no one should be surprised if you have a favorable view of them - and want to help. (this is my own theory - not anything anyone said today by the way)

Another big topic of discussion was error rates, with most people pointing out how non-specific it is; in other words, what does it mean. A more accurate analysis would be to look at the number of false positives (how accurate the tests are), and false negatives - how precise or specific they are. Another important concept is resolution - which is how precise a test is. The example is ABO vs DNA testing - where one includes someone and the the latter excludes them. The ABO test was correct in including the person, even though the more precise test excluded them. An interesting paradox is that the more precise a test, the more chances there are for error - think of a ruler. The more measurements there are the greater the chance you will read it wrong.

A couple of professors in statistics/mathematics also presented. They presented the concept of a likelihood ratio - which shows how likely the test results are correct. I'll talk more about in another post.

There was also some good information on pathology and trace evidence, as well as DNA. A recurrent them was that lawyers need to get all the information possible. There is much more interpretation involved in all areas of forensic science than most people realize. An interesting discussion addressed the reporting of DNA results involving a mixture - there were several opinions regarding how it could be reported. All were correct, and all involved choices. Unless you had all the information you wouldn't know what choices were made, and whether it was a problem.

Tomorrow's another day.  I'm sure it will be just as useful.

Looking toward Chicago

I'm starting to get excited about my first American Academy of Forensic Sciences annual meeting; it's next week in Chicago. I've been spending a lot of time looking at the program - all 200 pages of it. Having decide which programs to attend is new to me - as it would be to most lawyers. Most CLE cases involved a set schedule, with one topic at a time.

Fortunately the decision is made a little easier, since each section of the Academy has its own meetings; the section for lawyers and judges is jurisprudence. Some of the other sections have sessions on topics I can't pronounce, much less understand. However, there are some interesting looking topics in the criminalistics section, as well a general session.

So what's on the agenda? As you can imagine, there is a good dose of discussion about the NAS report. There are also some sessions on error rates and what they mean. One session that looks really interesting is titled "What about non-scientific Evidence? Suggestions for supporting opinion based testimony.

I'll keep you posted.

Pyschological Autopsies

Psychiatrists have been involved in criminal cases for years. Generally they have been limited to testifying about sanity and competency. Apparently not wanting to miss the expert bandwagon, some psychiatrists have ventured into psychological autopsies. If you haven't seen one, they most often come up in murder cases, where the issue is suicide or murder. The psychiatrist comes into court and testifies that based on the person's behavior, they wouldn't  have taken their life. Of course the problem in many cases is that the same factors relied on could just as easily support a suicide. If you ask people who see a lot of suicides - e.g. crime scene people - they will tell you that in the majority of cases there is no clue the person was considering. Oftentimes it is a spur of the moment decision.

The problem with such testimony is that the question of whether a death is suicide or homicide determines whether a person goes home or goes to prison. Where there is not definitive evidence either way, the psychiatrist can effectively decide guilt. I've said before that science should never have such a deciding role in criminal cases.

If you have a case where the State is going to use a psychological autopsy there isn't much to use to prepare - or use in cross examination. I've seen cases where a psychiatrist has never done a psychological autopsy, but still qualifies as an expert. So you can't even use prior testimony. Needless to say that is a challenge for lawyers.

So I was happy to see the subject is going to be addressed at the National Academy of Forensic Sciences meeting in Chicago in a couple of weeks. The title of the luncheon seminar is "The Psychological Autopsy: It's History, Application, and Legal Ramifications." Since I'm going to be there anyway, I'm planning on going. I'll follow up and let you know what they say.